Executive Director, Group Board Member
One of the strongest winters and springs in recent memory has fuelled a sense of stability across the Mornington Peninsula. Following a series of interest-rate cuts and revised land-tax valuations, buyers have re-engaged with the market and regained confidence in its outlook.
“We’re seeing more offers that are aligned with vendors’ expectations,” says Tom Barr Smith, Executive Director at Kay & Burton. “It feels like the market has turned a corner.”
Mr Barr Smith says buyer demographics have continued to evolve throughout 2025. After several seasons dominated by permanent-home purchasers, this most recent spring has brought renewed momentum from the holiday-home market.
“We’re seeing both established families and city professionals returning to a dual-home lifestyle,” he notes. “It’s a shift that reflects renewed optimism and the enduring appeal of the
Peninsula lifestyle.”
In and around Portsea, Liz Jensen, Director at Kay & Burton, has observed the same resurgence. “No two years are ever the same,” Ms Jensen says.
“We saw activity pause pre-election, then surge again once rates began to ease. Even through a long winter, the southern coastal pockets remained remarkably resilient.”
The market has also been subtly reshaped by hundreds of homes dropping off the Mornington Peninsula Shire’s short-stay accommodation register this year. Some owners have opted to divest, while others are capitalising on heightened demand for premium long-term rentals—shifts that have introduced both variety and opportunity to the market.
However, for both investors and homeowners, the long-term outlook remains compelling, withstanding short-term market fluctuations. Cotality’s latest Pain & Gain Report shows 95.5 per cent of resales achieving a profit in the June quarter, with a median profit of $466,000, placing the region among Victoria’s most reliable lifestyle markets.
Director
“Property on the Peninsula is a limited resource—a rare commodity so close to Melbourne.”
—Liz Jensen
Ms Jensen says confident young and middle-aged families remain the southern Peninsula’s strongest buyer cohort. “They’re not afraid of sensible debt and are drawn to the wholesome, community-driven lifestyle that Portsea, Sorrento and Blairgowrie offer,” she says.
Mr Barr Smith notes that buyers are again prioritising space, privacy and lifestyle, with small acreage properties up to $5 million among the most sought-after. “Vacant acreage blocks have been selling better over the past six months than we’ve seen in years,” Mr Barr Smith says.
Both agree the Peninsula’s scarcity remains its greatest luxury. “Property on the Peninsula is a limited resource—a rare commodity so close to Melbourne,” Ms Jensen says. “That scarcity, paired with lifestyle appeal, will always underpin confidence.” “With sentiment improving and a clearer macroeconomic outlook, momentum is expected to build into 2026,” Mr Barr Smith adds.