After a period of recalibration, Stonnington’s prestige property market has entered 2026 with early signs of stabilisation. What began as a recovery in 2025 has evolved into a more disciplined and selective market, where quality continues to outperform and scarcity remains a defining driver of competition.
Partner
“The market has shifted into a more considered phase,” says Matt Davis, Partner at Kay & Burton. “Confidence is improving, but it’s measured. Buyers are highly discerning and far more deliberate in their decision-making, particularly given the broader global backdrop.”
“As a result, we’re seeing a polarised market. A-grade homes that are well-located, turnkey and aligned to lifestyle are attracting strong competition and premium outcomes. Conversely, secondary stock is more price sensitive and taking longer to transact.”
This segmentation reflects a market increasingly anchored in value and risk awareness. Buyers remain active, but they are prioritising quality, long-term fundamentals and timing.
This measured dynamic is reflected in recent data, with approximately three-quarters of Stonnington resales delivering a positive result, according to Cotality—highlighting the market’s underlying resilience while reinforcing the premium attached to well-positioned homes.
Encouragingly, underlying demand drivers remain strong. Established local families continue to underpin the market, particularly in the $3 million to
$8 million range, while returning expatriates and interstate buyers are re-engaging as Melbourne’s relative value becomes more compelling on a global stage.
“We’re also seeing a notable re-entry of expats returning home,” Mr Davis notes. “Global uncertainty often accelerates decisions around lifestyle, stability and proximity to family and Stonnington continues to benefit
from that.”
At the upper end, A-grade homes above $8 million continue to transact strongly, supported by genuine scarcity. Landmark transactions in 2025—including the sale of Coonac Estate and significant Lansell Road holdings—underscore Toorak’s position as one of Australia’s premier residential markets.
Kay & Burton has captured 37 per cent of $10 million-plus sales3 in Stonnington, ahead of its nearest competitor at 22 per cent, reflecting the brand’s long-standing reputation and trust by vendors navigating the top end of the market.
Despite ongoing global uncertainty, Stonnington is well positioned to benefit from KPMG’ s forecast of 6.8 per cent Melbourne house price growth in 2026, supported by strong lifestyle fundamentals, intergenerational wealth and long-term value.
While the near-term environment carries a level of unpredictability, the long-term outlook remains constructive. Periods of uncertainty often create opportunity, particularly for decisive buyers who understand value and act with conviction.
“The key theme we’re seeing is timing,” Mr Davis says. “Markets like this reward those who can look beyond short-term noise and focus on fundamentals. People will always move, whether for family, lifestyle or opportunity, and that underpins resilience in markets like Stonnington.”
For buyers, the message is clear: act decisively on quality assets when they present. For vendors, strategic positioning and presentation remain critical to achieving premium outcomes in a more selective environment.
“Uncertainty is part of the cycle,” Mr Davis concludes. “But so is recovery, and over time, quality real estate continues to perform.”